I have not seen all 10 of the nominated films, but have seen half of them: The Fighter, The King’s Speech, Inception, Toy Story 3 and True Grit.
Of those, I believe both The Fighter and The King’s Speech have the potential to win and if I were to bet, I’d bet on The King’s Speech.
I liked the other films, but I really doubt the Academy would vote for an animated film. Inception seems to have been a conundrum for many in the industry. And to be honest, I don’t think True Grit really is as good as my two picks above.
Out of the rest I have not seen, Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, The Social Network and Winter’s Bone. It seems, based on the other awards, The Social Network is the only real contender for Best Picture.
As is, while my bet is for The King’s Speech to take Best Picture. My hope would be for Inception to take it in the hopes that Hollywood would take more risks in doing films like this rather than a yearly Big Momma’s movie.